Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
